Oil prices, including ICE Brent, began the week on a stronger note following US military strikes on Iranian launchers, which heightened concerns about supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf region [1]. According to ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, ICE Brent briefly moved above $90 per barrel during early morning trading in Asia, reflecting the market's sensitivity to geopolitical developments in the area [1]. The US strikes came amid suggestions that Iran was preparing to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments [1].
The analysts noted that the key issue moving forward is whether these events will trigger further rounds of military action between the US and Iran, and whether such escalation might make shippers more hesitant to navigate the Strait of Hormuz [1]. Currently, reports indicate that 6-8 million barrels per day transit the strait, though ING assumes an average of 5 million barrels per day [1]. Any further escalation could place these vital oil flows under renewed pressure, potentially exacerbating supply concerns [1].
In addition to the tensions in the Gulf, Russia announced an extension of its diesel export ban by another month, now set to last until the end of September 2026 [1]. This move is expected to add further stress to the global diesel market, which is already facing disruptions from both the Persian Gulf situation and Russian supply constraints [1]. The market is reportedly moving toward stronger demand, amplifying the impact of these supply-side challenges [1].
CONCLUSION
Brent oil prices have been buoyed above $90 per barrel due to escalating US-Iran tensions and Russia's extended diesel export ban, both of which are tightening global supply. The market remains highly sensitive to further developments in the Strait of Hormuz and Russian export policy, with the potential for additional price volatility if disruptions persist.