The USD/CHF currency pair traded slightly lower on Thursday as the Swiss Franc regained some ground following six consecutive days of losses. This pullback occurred after a sharp rally in the US Dollar, which was triggered by the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. At the time of reporting, USD/CHF was trading around 0.8245, a level last seen in May 2025 [1].
The Federal Reserve unanimously raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking its first increase since 2023. The updated dot plot indicated that 16 out of 18 Fed policymakers anticipate at least one more quarter-point rate hike before the end of the year [1]. This outlook could widen the interest rate gap with Switzerland, where the Swiss National Bank maintains its policy rate at zero, potentially making US Dollar-denominated assets more attractive and keeping the Swiss Franc vulnerable to further losses [1].
Strategists at UOB Group noted that the recent upswing in USD/CHF exceeded their expectations. They highlighted that the Dollar broke above both the 0.8205 and 0.8245 levels, surging to 0.8265, which confirmed a strong short-term impulse higher. However, UOB cautioned that while momentum remains strong, it is too early to determine if it is sufficient for USD/CHF to break above the 0.8300 resistance level. On the downside, a breach of 0.8185 would suggest that the recent bullish momentum is fading, with 0.8185 marked as a pivotal support level [1].
Technical analysis shows USD/CHF trading above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages, supporting a constructive near-term bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 68, indicating strong but nearly overbought momentum, while the MACD remains positive. Immediate resistance is seen at 0.8300, with a further barrier at 0.8400. Initial support is at 0.8200, followed by the 50-day SMA near 0.8108, and deeper support at the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at 0.8024 and 0.7941, respectively [1].
CONCLUSION
The USD/CHF pair has paused after a strong rally driven by the Fed's rate hike and hawkish outlook, with technical indicators suggesting near-overbought conditions. While the US Dollar retains a constructive bias, key resistance and support levels will determine the next directional move. Market participants are watching for further Fed action and any shifts in Swiss monetary policy.