TD Securities strategists project that Canadian real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will rise by 0.2% month-over-month in May, surpassing the flash estimate of a 0.1% increase and building on April’s 0.5% gain [1]. The growth is described as balanced across both goods and services sectors, with manufacturing, existing home sales, and retail trade all making significant contributions [1]. The strategists note that manufacturing will be a particular source of strength for the goods sector, while services will benefit from a sharp increase in existing home sales and a rebound in retail trade [1].
Labour market conditions are also cited as a key factor supporting the positive outlook, with a large increase in hours worked and a notable rise in job creation during May [1]. However, TD Securities anticipates that GDP growth will moderate in June following the strong start to the second quarter, as indicated by upcoming flash estimates for industry-level GDP [1].
No specific market reactions or analyst opinions beyond TD Securities’ outlook are mentioned in the article. The report does not provide additional details on market implications or forward-looking statements from other analysts [1].
CONCLUSION
TD Securities forecasts that Canadian GDP growth in May will exceed initial estimates, supported by broad-based sector gains and a robust labor market. However, the firm expects growth to moderate in June after a strong Q2 start. The market takeaway is cautiously optimistic, with balanced growth underpinning the Canadian economy in the near term.