Commerzbank analyst Tatha Ghose expects Poland’s National Bank (NBP) to keep its base rate unchanged at 3.75% during the July monetary policy decision, with market forwards already reflecting this outcome [1]. The analyst consensus is unanimous on the rate hold, and the focus has shifted to the Monetary Policy Council's (MPC) guidance regarding future moves [1].
Recent inflation data has played a significant role in this shift. Headline CPI slowed to 2.5% year-on-year in June, which was weaker than consensus expectations. More notably, the month-on-month price change turned negative, and after seasonal adjustment and smoothing, inflation momentum is near zero. Disinflationary forces in food and energy have reasserted themselves, and the recent oil shock did not generate a lasting inflationary impulse [1].
Previously, FRA contracts had been pricing in possible rate hikes for late 2026, but these bets have now been unwound. With the drop in energy prices, some market participants are now discussing the possibility of rate cuts as early as Q4 or March 2027 [1]. This shift in expectations erodes the Polish zloty’s (PLN) carry advantage and supports the view that the PLN will underperform against the Czech koruna (CZK), especially as the Czech National Bank (CNB) maintains a more credible hawkish bias [1].
Commerzbank concludes that the NBP’s expected 'on hold' decision and neutral, data-dependent guidance will likely reinforce the prospect of PLN underperformance in the coming months [1].
CONCLUSION
The Polish zloty is expected to underperform as the rate-hike narrative is replaced by talk of potential easing, with inflation momentum near zero and market bets shifting accordingly. The NBP’s neutral guidance and the CNB’s hawkish stance further support this outlook. Investors may see the PLN’s carry premium shrink, reducing its attractiveness relative to regional peers.