The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of currencies, maintained modest intraday gains around the 101.35 level during the first half of the European session on Wednesday, July 1, 2026. This upward movement comes amid ongoing uncertainty regarding Middle East diplomacy and heightened expectations for further interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) [1]. Market participants are closely watching for policy cues from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose speech is anticipated to provide fresh impetus for the currency markets [1].
Technically, the DXY recently broke above the 100.50 horizontal barrier on the daily chart, which has been interpreted as a bullish trigger for US Dollar buyers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 67.38, indicating bullish momentum but approaching overbought territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading is positive at 0.04, suggesting buyers remain in control, although the pace of gains may slow if momentum becomes stretched [1].
On the 4-hour chart, the DXY has established a short-term base around the 101.00 mark and continues to show a bullish bias above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 100.59. This level is seen as a key pivot for near-term direction. As long as the index holds above this pivot on a closing basis, dips are expected to be absorbed by buyers, with the path of least resistance pointing to further stabilization and potential incremental gains in the short term. Immediate resistance is identified at the 101.80 zone, the highest since May 2025, followed by the 102.00 mark. A sustained move above these levels would reinforce the bullish outlook and could extend the uptrend from the May swing low near 97.62 [1].
Conversely, a break below the 100.59 pivot would suggest the possibility of a corrective pullback, though the broader technical setup remains constructive according to momentum indicators [1].
CONCLUSION
The US Dollar Index is holding steady near recent highs as traders await guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's upcoming speech. Technical indicators point to a bullish bias, with key support and resistance levels in focus. Market participants are likely to remain cautious until further policy signals emerge.