West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US crude oil price, saw a modest uptick during the Asian session on Thursday, trading around the $89.30-$89.35 region and marking a gain of over 1.0% for the day. Despite this increase, WTI remains confined within a multi-day range, reflecting market caution after touching a one-month low on Tuesday [1].
Geopolitical risks continue to support crude oil prices, with escalating tensions in the Middle East serving as a key factor. The Pentagon has instructed US Central Command (CENTCOM) to finalize preparations for potential major combat operations in Iran, as US President Donald Trump considers a specific date for possible strikes. US and Israeli sources indicate that such action could occur before the US midterm elections and possibly before the Israeli elections, which are scheduled a week earlier [1].
Additionally, Iran has intensified attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and fighting between Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia is adding to the upward pressure on oil prices. An incoming storm threatening US Gulf Coast energy production and refining infrastructure further contributes to the positive tone for crude oil. However, easing supply concerns are preventing bulls from making aggressive bets, capping any significant upside for WTI [1].
From a technical standpoint, WTI remains below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, with the EMA at $89.89 acting as immediate resistance. The MACD histogram is slightly positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 50, indicating only modest bullish momentum. A more significant resistance lies at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $93.95, which would need to be reclaimed to shift the current bearish bias. On the downside, support is seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $88.82, with further levels at $84.67, $80.52, $74.61, and $67.08 if selling pressure intensifies [1].
CONCLUSION
WTI crude oil prices are experiencing modest gains, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and weather-related risks, but remain capped below key technical resistance levels. Market participants are cautious, with only limited bullish momentum evident. The outlook remains uncertain, with both upside and downside risks present depending on future developments in the Middle East and US energy infrastructure.