Commerzbank, through its analyst Tatha Ghose, has revised its near-term forecast for the EUR/PLN currency pair, raising it from 4.20 to 4.30. This adjustment is attributed to recent global risk-off moves and heightened uncertainty stemming from the oil price shock, which have exerted additional downside pressure on the Polish zloty, particularly as emerging market currencies face increased risk aversion [1].
Despite the near-term adjustment, Commerzbank has left its longer-term forecasts unchanged, maintaining an end-2026 EUR/PLN forecast of 4.25 and an end-2027 forecast of 4.40. The bank expects the EUR/PLN to rise steadily through 2027, citing ongoing medium-term headwinds for the zloty, including political risks [1].
Commerzbank anticipates that the geopolitical situation will eventually de-escalate, which could allow the euro and Eastern European currencies, including the zloty, to stabilize and recover from current risk-driven weakness. The timing of monetary policy is also highlighted as a potential support for the zloty, with the National Bank of Poland (NBP) possibly remaining on hold while oil prices and risk premia begin to fall, creating a 'sweet spot' before expectations for rate cuts return [1].
CONCLUSION
Commerzbank's upward revision of its near-term EUR/PLN forecast reflects current global risk aversion and oil price uncertainty impacting the Polish zloty. While medium-term headwinds persist, the bank sees potential for stabilization and recovery if geopolitical tensions ease and monetary policy remains supportive.