West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US crude oil price, traded just below the $90.00 mark during the Asian session on Friday, remaining close to its highest level since July 24, which was reached earlier in the week [1]. WTI is on track for its steepest weekly gains since mid-July, driven by renewed hostilities between the US and Iran and ongoing supply concerns related to clashes over the Strait of Hormuz [1].
Recent developments in the Middle East have heightened geopolitical risks: Iran targeted US military bases in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Thursday, while South Korea is reportedly preparing to deploy military assets to support freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to dispatch them before the end of the year [1]. These events have contributed to a persistent geopolitical risk premium, supporting a near-term positive outlook for crude oil prices [1].
From a technical perspective, WTI maintains a bullish bias, holding above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-July decline and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) [1]. Momentum indicators reinforce this view: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is near 63, and the MACD line remains in positive territory, suggesting buyers retain control even as the market approaches overbought conditions [1].
For further upside, a move beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $92.01 is needed to support additional gains toward the next resistance at $98.76 (78.6% retracement), with a sustained break potentially exposing the prior swing high around $107.36 [1]. On the downside, immediate support lies at the 50% retracement at $87.26, followed by the 100-day SMA near $85.17, with further demand expected around $82.52 and $76.65 if a deeper pullback occurs [1].
CONCLUSION
WTI crude oil prices are being buoyed by escalating geopolitical tensions and supportive technical indicators, keeping the near-term outlook positive. Market participants are closely watching for a break above $92.01 to confirm further gains, while downside support levels remain well-defined. The ongoing Middle East crisis and supply concerns are likely to keep volatility and the risk premium elevated in the oil market.