A new NBC News poll reveals that President Donald Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 41% among registered voters, marking a second-term low, as a majority (55%) now believe his policies have hurt the economy. This figure has increased from 48% in March, prior to the Iran war, which contributed to higher prices for gas and other goods and solidified the rising cost of living as the most pressing issue for voters [1]. The poll also shows that Democrats currently hold a 5-point lead over Republicans in the battle for control of Congress, 50%-45%. However, this lead is significantly smaller than the 12-point advantage Democrats held at the same point before the 2018 midterms [1].
Despite the Democratic lead, the party is still viewed more negatively than Trump and the GOP, which could benefit Republicans, especially since the fight for control of the House and Senate is taking place in traditionally Republican regions. To win the Senate, Democrats would need to flip multiple states that Trump carried by double digits in 2024 [1]. Republican pollster Bill McInturff noted that the outcome will be determined by the political geography of the campaign, which currently favors Republicans [1].
The poll indicates a deteriorating political environment for the GOP, as their longstanding double-digit leads over Democrats on handling inflation and the economy have disappeared. More than 60% of voters believe the Iran war has not been worth it, and Trump’s signature tax and spending legislation from the previous year is not motivating voters [1]. Instead, Trump himself is a central motivating factor, particularly for Democrats, with nearly half of independents and a historic share of voters saying their vote is a signal of opposition to the president [1]. Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt emphasized that Trump has made the election about himself to an unprecedented degree, but this has resulted in a record number of voters motivated to oppose him [1].
Republicans are attempting to counter these trends by portraying Democrats as too extreme to trust, but the poll suggests that the political climate remains challenging for the GOP as the midterm elections approach [1].
CONCLUSION
The NBC News poll highlights growing voter dissatisfaction with President Trump’s economic policies and a narrowing Republican advantage on key economic issues. While Democrats hold a modest lead in the congressional race, the political landscape remains competitive due to negative perceptions of both parties and the importance of electoral geography. The market takeaway is one of increased uncertainty and potential volatility as the midterms approach.