Commerzbank’s Barbara Lambrecht notes that the recent copper rally has paused, despite ongoing declines in LME copper stocks and a downward revision in output guidance from a major global producer due to weather conditions [1]. LME copper stocks have fallen for the 40th consecutive day, reaching just over 200,000 tons, their lowest level since February [1]. The rally had previously been supported by the Democratic Republic of Congo’s announcement to restrict exports of copper concentrate [1].
A key indicator of Chinese demand, the Yangshan import premium, has retreated from USD 115 per ton last month—its highest since 2022—to below USD 100, signaling a slowdown in the world’s largest copper consumer market [1]. This softening demand is seen as a cautionary sign for the copper market, potentially explaining the loss of momentum in copper prices [1].
Market participants are awaiting the monthly report from the International Copper Study Group, typically published between the 20th and 24th of each month, which will provide supply and demand figures for the first half of the year and could clarify recent price trends [1]. Additionally, a White House event scheduled today will discuss progress on domestic supply of critical minerals, with a pending decision on US copper tariffs that could further impact the market [1].
CONCLUSION
The copper market rally has paused as Chinese demand signals soften and import premiums decline, despite tight global stocks and reduced output forecasts. Upcoming supply and demand data, as well as potential US tariff decisions, are expected to influence market direction. Investors remain cautious, awaiting further clarity from these developments.