Gold prices soared to a three-month peak, surpassing the $4,600 mark and trading at $4,622, up over 2.3% on the day, as heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a softer US Dollar fueled a rally in the precious metal [1]. Despite robust US economic data, with the S&P Global Services PMI for August rising to 56.8—its highest since December 2024 and well above the estimated 54—investors largely ignored these figures, focusing instead on safe-haven assets like gold [1]. The Manufacturing PMI, however, slowed to a five-month low of 53.2 from 53.9 [1].
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an increased focus on fiscal consolidation, with the government considering further expansion of Treasury buybacks after unveiling plans to double buybacks of longer-dated securities [1]. The US Dollar Index remained relatively flat near 98.82, failing to cap gold's advance, while the US 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.8% to 4.75% [1]. Money markets reflected a 60% probability that the Federal Reserve would hold rates unchanged at the September meeting, down from 68% a day earlier, with a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike [1].
Poland's central bank slowed its gold purchases to 7.8 metric tons in July, according to data released on Friday [1]. Technical analysis indicates that gold buyers have reclaimed the 200-day Simple Moving Average at $4,514, with bullish momentum suggesting potential further gains. Resistance levels are identified at $4,650 and $4,700, with the May 8 high of $4,749 and $4,800 as subsequent targets. On the downside, support levels are at $4,514, $4,500, $4,379, and $4,164 [1].
CONCLUSION
Gold's rally above $4,600 reflects strong safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty and a subdued US Dollar, despite positive US services sector data. Technical indicators and market positioning suggest further upside potential, with investors closely watching upcoming Federal Reserve decisions and global developments.