DBS economists Taimur Baig and Radhika Rao anticipate that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) will maintain its policy rate at 1.00% during its August meeting, continuing the pause that followed a unanimous decision in June [1]. This expectation is based on the current economic landscape, where growth remains uneven: private consumption and foreign tourism are described as weak but stabilizing, while goods exports and private investment are performing strongly [1].
Headline inflation has eased for three consecutive months, reaching 1.9% year-on-year in July, down from rates near the upper end of the BoT’s 1–3% target range. This decline is attributed largely to lower energy prices [1]. Despite the moderation, inflation remains within the central bank’s target range, providing the BoT with flexibility to keep monetary policy unchanged and accommodative [1].
The economists note that this accommodative stance is intended to support Thailand’s economic recovery and work in tandem with fiscal measures, especially in the context of ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1]. No immediate market reaction or analyst opinions beyond the DBS economists’ outlook are mentioned in the source [1].
CONCLUSION
The Bank of Thailand is expected to keep its policy rate steady at 1.00% in August, reflecting a cautious approach amid uneven economic growth and moderating inflation. This policy pause is seen as supportive of economic recovery and aligned with fiscal efforts, according to DBS economists.