West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US crude oil price, experienced renewed selling pressure after an overnight bounce from the $79.30-$79.25 region, which marked an over two-week low. During the first half of the European session on Thursday, WTI traded just above $81.00, reflecting a decline of less than 0.50% for the day [1]. The main factor weighing on crude oil prices was optimism regarding a potential US-Iran peace deal and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated on Tuesday that the strategic waterway would not fully reopen until the US fulfills its commitments under an interim peace deal signed in June, maintaining a degree of geopolitical risk premium in the market [1].
From a technical perspective, WTI's recovery struggled to break above the $82.10-$82.15 confluence, which includes the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent recovery. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains marginally negative, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 40, indicating subdued momentum [1]. The broader technical setup suggests that rallies are likely to be capped below this resistance zone, despite the recent recovery from oversold conditions. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50.0% retracement level of $80.47, followed by the 61.8% level at $78.83 if selling pressure intensifies [1].
For bullish traders, a sustained move above the $82.10-$82.15 resistance is necessary before considering new positions for further gains. The next significant hurdles are at the 23.6% retracement level of $84.13 and a structural anchor near $87.40, which would need to be cleared to negate the current bearish tone [1].
No specific analyst opinions or forward-looking statements beyond the technical outlook were provided in the article.
CONCLUSION
WTI crude oil remains under pressure due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace deal and technical resistance near $82.10-$82.15. The market is likely to remain cautious until there is clarity on geopolitical developments and a decisive technical breakout occurs. Downside risks persist unless bulls can drive prices above key resistance levels.