DBS Group Research projects that Vietnam's real GDP will grow by 7.8% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, maintaining the same strong pace as observed in the first quarter of 2026 [1]. This robust growth is attributed to strong electronics manufacturing activity and shipments, which have benefited from the global technology upcycle driven by artificial intelligence demand, as well as supportive foreign direct investments and resilient retail spending [1].
Headline inflation is anticipated to moderate to 5.0% year-on-year in June 2026, down from 5.6% in May, primarily due to receding transport inflation as global and domestic energy prices ease. This trend is linked to a de-escalation of Middle East tensions following a US-Iran interim peace deal, although inflation in other components such as food and housing remains persistent [1].
The central bank has kept its refinancing rate steady in the second quarter of 2026, and policymakers are expected to maintain this stance to support high growth objectives. This is facilitated by easing energy prices and a stable currency, despite hawkish expectations from the US Federal Reserve [1].
Overall, the economic outlook for Vietnam remains positive, with strong growth momentum and moderating inflation providing a supportive backdrop for continued expansion [1].
CONCLUSION
Vietnam's economy is demonstrating strong resilience, with GDP growth holding steady at 7.8% and inflation showing signs of moderation. The stable policy environment and easing energy prices are expected to support ongoing economic expansion.