Rabobank reports that net short positions in the Australian Dollar (AUD) have increased for the second consecutive week, reaching their highest level since December 2025. Despite being the second-best performing G10 currency year-to-date, the AUD has weakened against the US Dollar this month, falling 3.23% to 0.70 from recent highs near 0.72 [1].
Meanwhile, Rabobank’s FX Strategy team notes that net short positions in the Canadian Dollar (CAD) have also picked up again after collapsing in the prior two weeks. The USD/CAD pair has continued to climb, rising 2.77% from recent lows to 1.414. Technical indicators, specifically the 14-day RSI, suggest that USD/CAD is currently overbought, which may lead to a short-lived pullback in the near term. However, Rabobank expects USD/CAD to trade sideways between 1.41 and 1.42 through the end of the year [2].
Both articles highlight a shift in speculative positioning against the AUD and CAD, coinciding with recent strength in the US Dollar. The increase in net shorts for both currencies and the fading gains versus the Dollar suggest a cautious outlook for the AUD and CAD in the near term [1][2]. Rabobank’s forward-looking view for USD/CAD is for a period of sideways trading, indicating limited directional risk but heightened volatility around current levels [2].
CONCLUSION
Rabobank's analysis points to rising speculative short positions in both the Australian and Canadian Dollars as the US Dollar gains strength. While technical factors suggest a possible short-term reversal in USD/CAD, the broader outlook is for sideways trading into year end. Market sentiment appears cautious for AUD and CAD, with medium impact expected as traders adjust positions.