Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke highlights that European gas storage levels are highly dependent on increased LNG imports over the winter months, with current inflows at 8 billion cubic meters (bcm) per month potentially leading to storage levels trending toward 0% by March if maintained through spring [1]. Liebke notes that a scenario with 10 bcm per month is more realistic, which would result in storage levels at about 16% shortly before the start of the replenishment phase [1]. However, he cautions that 12 bcm per month appears too optimistic due to sustained high demand for US LNG from Asian countries, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains open [1].
The report emphasizes that delayed recovery in LNG imports, robust Asian demand, and the absence of Qatari LNG shipments pose significant upside risks for both European gas and electricity prices [1]. Liebke states, 'This increases the pressure to import even more in the coming months, thereby raising the price risk,' and adds that these factors would further increase upward pressure on European electricity prices [1].
No specific market reactions or analyst forecasts beyond Commerzbank’s assessment are provided in the article [1].
CONCLUSION
Commerzbank warns that without higher LNG inflows, European gas storage could be severely depleted by March, increasing the risk of higher gas and electricity prices. Strong Asian demand and missing Qatari LNG shipments are key factors driving this risk, making the market outlook for European energy prices more uncertain.