Rabobank has revised its TTF Natural Gas and JKM price forecasts higher for the third and fourth quarters of 2026, citing a structurally tight LNG market and deeper Qatari export losses following renewed disruption in the Strait of Hormuz [1]. The bank notes that the latest breakdown in the US-Iran understanding and the resumption of military action have further hampered the recovery of LNG flows through Hormuz, exacerbating the global supply deficit [1].
Rabobank estimates that, even under optimistic scenarios where flows gradually resume by August, Qatar was on track to lose around 37 million tonnes of LNG production and exports by year-end. With the current escalation, this shortfall is expected to increase further, intensifying competition for available LNG cargoes and leaving both Europe and Asia more exposed to supply shocks [1].
The bank warns that Europe may enter winter with storage levels only just above 70% capacity, which would make buyers more vulnerable to spot LNG pricing and potential supply disruptions [1]. In response to these risks, Rabobank has raised its TTF price forecasts for Q3 and Q4 to €48/MWh and €52/MWh, respectively, and its JKM forecasts to $16.85/MMBtu and $18/MMBtu for the same periods [1].
Rabobank concludes that the combination of a larger expected LNG shortfall, slower European storage injections, and renewed risk premium around Hormuz justifies these upward revisions to its price outlook [1].
CONCLUSION
Rabobank's upward revision of natural gas price forecasts reflects heightened supply risks due to deeper Qatari LNG export losses and ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. With European storage levels potentially low heading into winter, the market faces increased exposure to price volatility and supply shocks.