The National Association of Realtors (NAR) chief economist Lawrence Yun has projected that the national median home price in the United States will reach $1 million by 2050, coinciding with the traditional retirement age for millennials [1]. Yun made this statement at a conference in Washington, D.C., highlighting the dramatic increase from the 1990 national median price of $90,000 and referencing San Francisco's median price of $250,000 in 1990 as a point of comparison [1].
As of May, the median sales price for existing homes in the U.S. was nearly $430,000, according to Realtor.com data, representing an increase of more than 2% from the previous month [1]. Meanwhile, the average U.S. rent across all bedrooms and property types was $2,006 per month, up $6 from the prior month, according to Zillow [1]. Yun emphasized the growing disparity between homeowners, who continue to build wealth, and renters, who are not accumulating equity [1].
Yun also addressed the broader economic outlook, stating that he does not forecast an economic recession for the U.S. in 2026 and expects mortgage rates to remain relatively flat, averaging 6.5% throughout that year [1]. He projected that existing-home sales would grow by 4% this year, rebounding from a 30-year low in 2025, when elevated rates had slowed market activity [1]. Additionally, Yun anticipates nationwide job gains to reach 400,000 for the year, suggesting stable economic footing [1].
NAR deputy chief economist and Vice President of Research Jessica Lautz described the current housing market as 'wonky,' with inventory performance varying widely even between neighboring properties [1]. Lautz noted that some homes may sit on the market for months while others receive multiple offers, sometimes in the same neighborhood [1]. Despite ongoing affordability challenges, Lautz identified three active buyer segments: baby boomers selling homes for the first time, young COVID-era buyers, and lifestyle renters seeking more space [1].
CONCLUSION
The NAR's projections indicate a significant long-term rise in U.S. home prices, with the median expected to reach $1 million by 2050. While homeowners are poised to benefit from continued equity growth, affordability challenges persist for renters and new buyers. The market is expected to stabilize with modest sales growth and steady mortgage rates, but disparities in inventory and buyer activity remain.