Brent crude oil prices have retreated from recent highs following President Trump's decision to extend the Iran ceasefire indefinitely, according to Societe Generale strategists [1]. The technical team at Societe Generale highlights that Brent encountered strong resistance near $120 and recently tested the 50-day moving average (DMA) around $91/90 for the first time since January [1]. The April high near $104 is identified as the next significant resistance level, with a break above this point seen as crucial for confirming a broader rebound in prices [1].
Societe Generale notes that oil prices briefly surged above $100 per barrel intra-day before retracing, and the path to normalisation in oil prices remains highly uncertain despite the ceasefire extension [1]. According to Tehran, there are indications that the US may be prepared to lift the naval blockade, which is a condition for Iran's participation in the next round of negotiations in Pakistan [1]. The US has stated it will hold off on further strikes until Iran submits a new proposal and discussions are concluded [1].
The strategists suggest that the US's willingness to extend the ceasefire may be influenced by perceived fractures within the Iranian leadership regarding their negotiation stance on nuclear material control [1]. Market participants have responded to each extension by increasing risk exposure, though the overall outlook remains cautious [1].
A failure for Brent to hold above the 50-DMA area near $91/90 could trigger a deeper decline, while a break above the April high of $104 would be important for a sustained rebound [1].
CONCLUSION
Brent oil prices are in a pullback phase, with technical levels at $104 and $91/90 being closely watched for signs of further movement. The indefinite extension of the Iran ceasefire has added uncertainty, and market participants remain cautious as negotiations continue. The market's direction will likely depend on developments in US-Iran relations and Brent's ability to hold key support levels.