On Monday during Asian trading hours, the EUR/JPY currency pair rebounded from the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern, trading near 184.90 after gaining over 0.5% the previous day [1]. Despite this bounce, EUR/JPY remains below both the 50-day and nine-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.66, indicating fading bullish momentum and a near-term downside bias [1]. Key technical levels include support at 184.40 and resistance at the 50-day EMA of 185.05, the nine-day EMA at 185.28, and the upper triangle boundary at 186.30. A break below the triangle could push EUR/JPY toward the three-month low of 181.87 (March 16) and the six-month low of 180.81 (February 12), while further advances could expose the all-time high of 187.95 (April 17) [1]. The Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc today, up 0.22% [1].
Meanwhile, the AUD/USD pair traded flat around the mid-0.7000s after touching a nearly two-month low at 0.7025-0.7020 during the Asian session [2]. The pair remains vulnerable amid bullish sentiment for the US Dollar, which has been supported by geopolitical developments: the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck military targets in Iran following Iran's missile attack on Israel's Ramat David air base Sunday night [2]. This escalation threatens a fragile ceasefire and has pushed crude oil prices higher, reviving inflation concerns. Combined with Friday's upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, these factors bolster the case for a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike in 2026 and favor USD bulls [2]. Diminishing odds of a near-term rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) further cap upside for AUD/USD [2].
Technically, AUD/USD maintains a bearish bias after breaking below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Friday and trading below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March-May rally. The RSI is near 38 and the MACD histogram is negative, suggesting persistent downside pressure [2]. Resistance levels are at the 100-day SMA (0.7074), 38.2% Fibo (0.7108), and 23.6% Fibo (0.7173), while support is at the 61.8% Fibo (0.7003), 78.6% Fibo (0.6928), and prior swing low at 0.6833 [2]. Over the past 30 days, the US Dollar has strengthened against all major currencies, with the largest gain against the New Zealand Dollar (+2.48%) and a 2.34% rise against the Australian Dollar [2].
No explicit forward-looking analyst opinions are provided, but both articles highlight technical barriers and potential downside risks for EUR/JPY and AUD/USD, with geopolitical tensions and US economic data influencing market sentiment [1][2].
CONCLUSION
Both EUR/JPY and AUD/USD are experiencing heightened volatility, driven by technical factors and geopolitical developments, particularly the Iran-Israel conflict. The US Dollar remains strong, supported by inflation concerns and robust economic data, while the Euro and Australian Dollar face downside risks. Market participants should monitor key technical levels and geopolitical headlines for further direction.