The US Dollar (USD) has maintained its strength against major currencies, including the Euro (EUR) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD), amid heightened geopolitical risks and positive US economic data. The EUR/USD pair rebounded after a 0.75% loss in the previous day, trading around 1.1530 during Asian hours on Monday, but remains under a bearish bias as it holds below both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35 is nearing oversold territory, suggesting that while downside pressure persists, the pace of decline may slow as sellers approach stretched conditions. Key technical levels include support at the lower boundary of the descending channel around 1.1510 and resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.1591, with a break above the upper channel boundary at 1.1710 potentially exposing a four-month high of 1.1849. The Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc today, up 0.14%, but lost 0.14% against the US Dollar, reflecting USD strength [1].
Meanwhile, the NZD/USD pair recovered from a two-month low at 0.5780, retaking the 0.5800 mark, but remains capped by a bearish setup. The USD is supported by a bullish consolidation phase and Friday's upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which reaffirmed market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in 2026. This has helped the USD hold steady near a two-month top, limiting NZD/USD gains. Technical analysis shows a bearish double top pattern near 0.6000, a breakdown through the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5900, and neckline support at 0.5825-0.5820. The MACD indicator remains negative and the RSI is oversold at 28, indicating persistent downside pressure. Immediate resistance is at the 200-period SMA of 0.5895, and any recovery attempts are likely to encounter selling interest before a sustained base is formed [2].
Over the past seven days, the US Dollar has been the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar, up 2.90%, and has gained 1.05% against the Euro. The Euro, in turn, has lost 1.05% against the USD but gained 0.14% against the Swiss Franc today. The NZD has been particularly weak, losing 2.90% against the USD and 1.86% against the EUR over the past week [1][2].
Geopolitical tensions, specifically the Israel-Iran conflict, have entered a dangerous new phase with attacks across multiple fronts, keeping risk sentiment fragile and supporting the USD. The combination of geopolitical risks and strong US economic data has reinforced the bearish outlook for both EUR/USD and NZD/USD pairs, with technical indicators suggesting further downside unless key resistance levels are reclaimed [2].
CONCLUSION
The US Dollar's strength, driven by geopolitical tensions and robust US payroll data, has pressured both the Euro and New Zealand Dollar, resulting in bearish setups for EUR/USD and NZD/USD. Technical indicators and recent price action suggest continued downside risk, with any recovery attempts likely to face resistance. Market sentiment remains negative, and the impact is high as traders monitor key support and resistance levels for potential shifts.