ING economist Charlotte de Montpellier anticipates that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep its policy rate unchanged at 0% at its upcoming meeting next Thursday and maintain this stance over the coming quarters [1]. This expectation is based on Switzerland's stronger-than-expected economic growth and persistently subdued inflation. ING has revised its GDP growth forecast for Switzerland to an average of 1.9% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027, citing solid performance in the first half of the year, improved international demand, and a slightly weaker Swiss franc [1].
Despite the improved economic outlook, the current inflation environment in Switzerland remains benign, largely due to the strength of the Swiss franc, which continues to support low inflation levels [1]. As a result, ING sees little reason for the SNB to alter its policy rate, especially if global energy prices decline as expected [1]. The SNB is projected to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy compared to other central banks, reflecting Switzerland's unique domestic conditions [1].
The SNB is also expected to continue its targeted approach to foreign exchange intervention, ensuring that the franc remains strong but does not appreciate excessively [1]. This policy divergence from other central banks is seen as sustainable as long as domestic inflation remains subdued and the currency does not strengthen significantly [1].
CONCLUSION
The Swiss National Bank is expected to keep its policy rate at 0% in the near term, supported by strong economic growth and low inflation. This accommodative stance sets the SNB apart from other central banks and is likely to persist as long as inflation remains contained and the franc does not appreciate excessively.