Oil prices remain buoyed by ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, as negotiations between the US and Iran continue without a clear resolution. ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note that while US President Donald Trump described the current state as 'semi-negotiating' with Iran, the emphasis appears to be on economic pressure rather than military escalation. Despite reports that Iran and Oman are close to an agreement on a shipping route through the Strait, a full reopening is still contingent on progress in US-Iran talks [1].
Speculative sentiment in the oil market has turned more cautious, with money managers reducing net long positions in NYMEX WTI by 7,257 lots to 101,050 lots, and in ICE Brent by 20,361 lots to 164,722 lots. This marks the second consecutive week of declines in net long positions, reflecting increased uncertainty and risk aversion among market participants [1].
US oil activity continues to recover, as evidenced by Baker Hughes data showing the oil rig count rising by three to 454, the highest level since May 2025. US crude exports remain elevated, driven by buyers seeking alternative supply sources amid geopolitical risks. However, much of the recent export increase is attributed to inventory drawdowns rather than a surge in production growth [1].
In the gas market, Henry Hub prices extended gains for a second session, supported by forecasts for warmer weather, stronger power-sector demand, and higher LNG feedgas flows. Additional support came from reports that new processing capacity at the Corpus Christi LNG terminal could boost feedgas demand by around 0.8 bcf/d [1].
CONCLUSION
Uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and cautious market positioning are supporting oil prices, while US oil activity and exports remain robust. The market is closely watching US-Iran negotiations for further developments, with speculative sentiment turning more cautious amid ongoing geopolitical risks.