Gold has maintained most of its recent gains after breaking above key resistance levels, according to OCBC analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong [1]. The rally was previously supported by factors such as lower oil prices, a pullback in US Treasury yields and the US dollar, as well as news of central bank and ETF purchases and technical buying following the breakout [1]. However, momentum has recently eased due to a rebound in oil prices, which has revived inflation concerns and pushed US Treasury yields higher [1].
Technical analysis indicates that daily momentum for gold remains mildly bullish, though the rise in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moderated [1]. Key resistance levels are identified at 4333 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2026 high to low) and 4389 (100-day moving average), while support is seen at 4180 (50-day moving average) and 4082 (21-day moving average) [1].
The upcoming US payrolls report is highlighted as the next significant test for the gold rally. OCBC notes that a weaker payrolls print could reinforce the recent upward move by further reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, whereas a stronger report may trigger profit taking after the sharp rally [1].
CONCLUSION
Gold's recent breakout is holding, but momentum has slowed as inflation concerns and higher yields return. The US payrolls report is expected to be a key catalyst, with the potential to either extend the rally or prompt profit taking depending on the outcome.