A significant geopolitical development occurred as US President Donald Trump announced on social media that the ceasefire with Iran is over, despite ongoing negotiations between the two countries set to continue next week in Switzerland [1][4]. This announcement led to a deterioration in risk appetite, impacting major currency pairs and shaping market sentiment [1][4].
The British Pound (GBP) held firm against the US Dollar (USD), with GBP/USD trading at 1.3406, unchanged after reaching a near one-month high of 1.3451 earlier in the day. The pair is set to finish the week with gains of over 0.58%, supported by technical factors and political developments in the UK, including Andy Burnham securing majority Labour MP support to succeed current Prime Minister Keir Starmer [1]. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also upgraded its UK economic forecast, predicting 1% growth in 2026, making the UK the third fastest-growing G7 economy behind Canada and the US [1].
In the Asia-Pacific region, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its recovery against the USD, with NZD/USD trading around 0.5771 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points and signaled potential further tightening [2]. The NZD was the strongest major currency against the USD on the day, and technical indicators such as the RSI and MACD suggested fading bearish momentum, though the pair remained capped by key moving averages [2].
The Australian Dollar (AUD) also advanced, with AUD/USD climbing toward 0.6960, supported by a softer USD and a stronger Chinese Yuan (CNY), which reached a one-week high against the USD following a firmer fixing from the People’s Bank of China [4]. However, escalating US-Iran tensions limited broader risk appetite. Technical analysis showed AUD/USD trading above key moving averages, with the RSI at 58 indicating constructive bullish momentum [4].
Meanwhile, the Singapore Dollar (SGD) remained range-bound against the USD, with UOB projecting USD/SGD to trade between 1.2905 and 1.2940 in the near term, and a broader range of 1.2890–1.2990 over the next one to three weeks. A break above 1.3000 could target 1.3095 on a one to three month horizon [3].
Looking ahead, market participants are focused on upcoming US inflation data, speeches by Federal Reserve and Bank of England officials, and Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations, all of which could further influence currency movements [1][4].
CONCLUSION
The end of the US-Iran ceasefire has injected fresh volatility into FX markets, with the GBP, NZD, and AUD showing resilience against the USD amid shifting risk sentiment and central bank actions. While technicals remain supportive for these pairs, upcoming economic data and ongoing geopolitical developments will be key drivers for market direction in the near term.