According to Nordea strategists, the Norwegian Krone (NOK) is expected to remain broadly stable over the next six months following July’s appreciation in the EUR/NOK pair, which was driven by higher oil prices and increased NOK purchases by Norges Bank [1]. The analysts highlight that there are significant two-sided risks for the NOK, particularly related to developments in the Middle East and fluctuations in oil prices [1].
Looking further ahead, Nordea forecasts a somewhat stronger NOK in 2027, anticipating that a weaker US Dollar (USD) and supportive global risk sentiment will gradually push the EUR/NOK lower [1]. The strategists state, "If our expectation of a weaker dollar next year materialises, this should therefore provide support for the NOK" [1].
Overall, Nordea’s base case is for the NOK to remain largely unchanged in the near term, with potential for appreciation during 2027 as global conditions become more favorable for the currency [1]. No specific market reactions or analyst opinions beyond Nordea’s outlook are mentioned in the article [1].
CONCLUSION
Nordea projects the Norwegian Krone will stay range-bound in the near term, with appreciation likely in 2027 if a weaker US Dollar and improved global risk sentiment materialize. The outlook is balanced by notable risks tied to oil prices and geopolitical developments.