Societe Generale analysts, led by Kenneth Broux, report that GBP/USD has broken below its ascending trendline established since April 2025, extending its decline toward the March low of 1.3150 [1]. The overnight trading range for GBP/USD was 1.3163 to 1.3230, with the pair erasing the 1.32 handle and falling 1.6% this week, making it the third worst performer in the G10 after NOK and NZD [1]. Key technical levels highlighted include resistance near 1.3300 and support at 1.3065/1.3000, with further downside projections around 1.2940 if the pair fails to reclaim resistance [1]. Societe Generale notes that the March low of 1.3159 must hold to avoid a deeper drop, and that a short-term rebound could see the May trough near 1.3300 act as initial resistance [1].
In related market moves, the victory of Andy Burnham in Makerfield has lifted 10-year yields back above 4.80% [1]. Additionally, the Sonia curve is now pricing in one rate increase by year-end, reflecting shifting market expectations for UK interest rates [1].
The combination of technical breakdown in GBP/USD and changing rate expectations suggests heightened volatility and potential for further downside in the currency pair, should key support levels fail to hold [1].
CONCLUSION
GBP/USD has broken a significant trendline and is under pressure, with technical indicators pointing to further losses if support levels are breached. Market sentiment is negative, as reflected in the currency's underperformance and rising yields, with expectations of a rate hike by year-end. Investors should monitor key support and resistance levels for further direction.