During the week of March 9–13, 2026, the FX markets experienced extreme volatility driven primarily by the ongoing US-Iran war, which entered its second week and significantly impacted global currency movements [1]. Brent crude oil briefly surged above $100 a barrel, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route [1]. Traders oscillated between optimism that the conflict might end soon and concerns that it could persist, with sentiment shifting in response to statements from US President Trump and Iranian officials [1].
The US dollar emerged as the dominant currency, benefiting from safe-haven flows and its status as a net energy exporter amid the oil shock [1]. The Japanese yen, initially weakened due to Japan's reliance on energy imports, staged a dramatic recovery late in the week [1]. The Australian dollar surprised with gains early in the week but later reversed course, while the New Zealand dollar, British pound, and euro all underperformed, each facing their own challenges in the turbulent environment [1].
Although economic data releases such as CPI, PCE, UK GDP, and Canadian jobs were noted, their influence was secondary to the overarching impact of the oil market and geopolitical developments [1]. The week was characterized by currencies reacting to the war and oil price movements rather than traditional macroeconomic indicators [1].
CONCLUSION
The US-Iran conflict and oil price surge dominated FX markets, propelling the US dollar higher and causing sharp moves across major currencies. Safe-haven flows and energy dynamics were the primary drivers, overshadowing economic data releases. Market participants remain focused on geopolitical developments and oil prices for future direction.