The ongoing war in Iran has led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping chokepoint along Iran’s southern coast, since the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran began on February 28, 2026 [1]. This strait is vital for global trade, with about one-third of the world’s fertilizer ingredients and one-fifth of global oil supplies transiting through it [1]. At least three cargo ships have been directly attacked by Iranian military forces, and there are growing fears that sea mines have been planted in the strait, prompting shipping companies and oil tanker owners to avoid the area. Marine tracking systems show hundreds of tankers idling outside the waterway with no clear route forward [1].
As a result of these disruptions, oil prices have surged, with U.S. crude topping $99 a barrel on Friday evening, marking an increase of around 50% since the start of the conflict [1]. The longer the war continues, the greater the risk that these disruptions will extend beyond energy markets and impact the global food supply chain. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, highlighted the less recognized risk to food supply chains, which depend on exports passing through the region [1].
The Middle East is a major player in fertilizer production due to its abundant natural gas reserves, which are essential for producing ammonia—a key component of nitrogen fertilizers like urea. Countries affected by the conflict, including Egypt, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, account for about 49% of global urea exports and roughly 30% of ammonia exports, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation [1]. Faith Parum, a Farm Bureau economist, noted that fertilizer markets are globally integrated, so supply disruptions in one region can quickly affect prices and availability elsewhere [1].
American farmers are already feeling the impact. John Boyd Jr., a fourth-generation farmer in Virginia, reported that his fertilizer supplier warned him shipments may not arrive as expected due to the war and bombing in the area, stating, “The dealers are telling me we can’t get the fertilizer… Due to the war and the bombing through that area, the fertilizer isn’t moving” [1]. Boyd emphasized the critical role of fertilizer in food production, noting that without it, crop yields would suffer [1].
CONCLUSION
The Iran conflict has triggered a sharp rise in oil prices and threatens to disrupt global fertilizer supplies, raising the risk of higher food costs in the U.S. and worldwide. With key shipping routes blocked and supply chains strained, market participants face heightened uncertainty and volatility. The situation underscores the interconnectedness of energy and agricultural markets and the potential for prolonged disruptions if the conflict continues.