Nomura strategists anticipate that the Riksbank will maintain its policy rate at 1.75% during its upcoming August meeting, with no changes expected through 2026 according to their current forecast. This outlook is underpinned by persistently low Swedish inflation, as the CPIF excluding energy and with constant taxes registered at 1.3% year-on-year in July and has remained below 2% throughout the year so far [1].
Despite this, Nomura highlights that recent economic activity data in Sweden has been notably stronger, and ongoing geopolitical risks—such as the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz—are contributing to upside inflation risks. Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) has already raised its policy rate once this year and is expected to do so again in September, which could exert further pressure on the Riksbank to consider tightening earlier than previously forecast [1].
Nomura expects the Riksbank to maintain a cautious stance, likely emphasizing high levels of uncertainty in its statement and reiterating its readiness to act if necessary. The strategists suggest the Riksbank may, as in May, refrain from providing formal guidance on the future policy rate path due to the prevailing uncertainty, opting instead to wait for a forecast meeting to do so [1].
While Nomura's base case remains for no policy rate change this year and a hike only at the end of 2027, they acknowledge that risks are skewed toward an earlier rate increase. These risks are reflected in market pricing, which currently anticipates one to two hikes by year-end [1].
CONCLUSION
Nomura maintains its forecast for the Riksbank to keep rates unchanged in the near term, but acknowledges that stronger economic data and external pressures are increasing the risk of an earlier hike. Market pricing already reflects these risks, suggesting heightened uncertainty around the Riksbank's future policy path.