WTI crude oil prices surged at the weekly opening, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trading around $99, marking a roughly 3% increase amid escalating supply concerns following U.S. military action against Iran's main oil hub on Kharg Island, from which nearly 90% of Iranian oil exports are shipped [1][2]. President Donald Trump ordered strikes against Iranian military assets on Kharg Island and warned of further attacks on crude facilities located there, while U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz reiterated the warning [2]. Tehran responded with strikes on neighboring countries and claimed the U.S. presence in the region, intensifying fears over control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for Middle East oil producers [1][2]. President Trump called for allied countries to help protect the Strait, with reports suggesting a White House announcement may be forthcoming [1].
U.S. crude prices hovered near $100 per barrel, trading flat at $98.7 per barrel by 8:10 p.m. ET, while Brent prices rose 0.48% to $103.7 per barrel [2]. Technical analysis indicates a bullish near-term bias for WTI, with price holding a premium over the 20-, 100-, and 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), and momentum indicators signaling strengthening upside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 62, suggesting buyers retain control with room to extend the move. Initial support is at the 20-period SMA around $91.55, with further support at the 100-period SMA near $77.45 and the 200-period SMA around $70.54. A sustained break above $100 could open the way toward recent highs around $120 [1].
Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed as investors assessed elevated oil prices and the latest developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.31%, Japan's Nikkei 225 slid 0.12%, Topix declined 0.11%, South Korea's Kospi added 0.95%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng futures indicated a higher open [2]. On Wall Street, stock futures rose slightly after a losing week, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures up 153 points (0.3%), S&P 500 futures up 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.3%. Last Friday, the S&P 500 closed at 6,632.19, down 0.61%, the Nasdaq Composite ended at 22,105.36, down 0.93%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average settled at 46,558.47, down 0.26% [2].
Goldman Sachs estimates that the surge in energy prices stemming from the war in Iran could shave about 0.3% off global GDP over the next year, while pushing headline inflation higher by roughly 0.5% to 0.6%. The bank also highlighted that higher natural gas prices are expected to add further inflationary pressure and growth headwinds, particularly in Europe and Asia, with risks skewed toward larger impacts if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed [2]. Meanwhile, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright expressed optimism that the Iran war could end within "the next few weeks," with oil supplies rebounding and energy costs declining afterwards, according to the Guardian [1]. However, ongoing supply disruptions are expected to worsen, leading to higher crude oil prices [1].
CONCLUSION
Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and military action on Kharg Island have driven WTI crude oil prices near $100, fueling supply concerns and volatility across global markets. Analysts warn of significant economic and inflationary impacts if disruptions persist, especially if the Strait of Hormuz remains threatened. While some officials anticipate a resolution within weeks, current market sentiment remains cautious amid ongoing risks.