Both the GBP/USD and EUR/USD currency pairs are experiencing notable movements ahead of key central bank meetings this week. The GBP/USD pair has gained momentum, trading around 1.3255 during the early European session on Monday, supported by a weaker US Dollar. This marks its lowest level since December 2025. Traders are exercising caution as they await the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decisions later in the week. The Fed is widely expected to keep its benchmark federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% during its March meeting on Wednesday, with persistent inflation risks prompting analysts to delay expectations for the next rate cut to September [1]. The BoE is also anticipated to hold rates at 3.75% on Thursday. Oxford economists warn that a worst-case scenario involving oil prices rising to $140 a barrel could significantly increase inflation and potentially push the UK economy into a mild recession [1].
Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair has recovered some ground to near 1.1450 during Asian trading hours, but upside potential remains limited. Escalating conflict in the Middle East is cited as a factor that could strengthen safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar against the Euro. US President Donald Trump stated over the weekend that "many countries" would send warships to the region and urged NATO allies to assist in opening the Strait of Hormuz, warning of a "very bad" future for NATO if allies fail to act [2]. Traders are also preparing for the Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) rate decisions this week. The Fed is expected to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday, but energy-driven inflation risks are dampening hopes for future rate cuts. Swaps pricing indicates that markets expect the ECB to tighten monetary policy faster than previously anticipated, with a rate hike now seen as soon as June according to LSEG data [2].
Technical analysis for EUR/USD shows a bearish bias, with the pair trading below the 100-day exponential moving average and breaking beneath the lower Bollinger Band. The RSI is in oversold territory, confirming strong downside momentum. Resistance is noted at 1.1510 and 1.1620, while immediate support is at 1.1415, with a break exposing the next bearish target near 1.1360. As long as EUR/USD remains capped below 1.1620, rallies are expected to attract selling interest, keeping focus on lower supports [2].
Analyst opinions highlight that central bank responses will depend on inflation trends, with Carol Kong of Commonwealth Bank of Australia noting that ongoing geopolitical risks pose downside risks to economic growth and upside risks to inflation [1].
CONCLUSION
Both GBP/USD and EUR/USD are reacting to upcoming central bank decisions and heightened geopolitical risks, with inflation concerns influencing market sentiment. The Fed and BoE are expected to hold rates steady, while the ECB may tighten policy sooner than previously thought. Market participants remain cautious, and technical signals suggest continued downside risk for EUR/USD.