West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures on NYMEX rose 1.5% to trade near $95.00 during the European session on Monday, driven by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for nearly 20% of global oil supply, due to stalled peace talks between the United States and Iran [1]. The diplomatic stalemate intensified after US President Donald Trump canceled a planned visit by US envoys to Islamabad for discussions with Iran, deeming Iran's counteroffer insufficient. Iran has since proposed another deal, contingent on the US lifting its blockade of Iranian sea ports [1].
Market experts have cautioned that oil prices could climb further if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Under a bullish scenario where the disruption continues through the end of June, a major bank projects Brent crude prices could spike to $150 per barrel. As of the latest update, Brent crude is trading 2.2% higher at approximately $101.30 [1].
Technical analysis indicates that WTI maintains a near-term bullish bias, stabilizing above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $91.71, with momentum (Relative Strength Index at 55) suggesting potential for further gains as the market consolidates above short-term trend support. The next significant resistance is around the $100 level, while initial support lies at the 20-day EMA, and broader support is at the April 17 low of $78.88 [1].
Investors are also closely monitoring upcoming monetary policy announcements from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which could further influence market direction this week [1].
CONCLUSION
WTI crude oil prices are surging amid heightened geopolitical tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with technical and fundamental factors pointing to the potential for further gains. Market participants are bracing for continued volatility, especially if the supply disruption persists and as central bank decisions loom. The situation underscores the oil market's sensitivity to geopolitical developments and supply chain risks.