Gold (XAU/USD) began the week trading in a cautious and indecisive manner, maintaining a tight range around $4,700, as reflected by doji candles on the daily chart [1]. The market's uncertainty is driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the cancellation of the second round of US-Iran peace talks, which have kept investor risk appetite subdued and left precious metals prices largely flat [1].
The US Dollar Index (DXY) showed weakness on Monday, influenced by mild optimism regarding the potential end of the US-Iran war and ongoing efforts toward a diplomatic deal. However, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, the market remains cautious [1].
Investors are also closely watching upcoming central bank monetary policy decisions, with particular attention on the Federal Reserve's meeting scheduled for Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged and signal a steady policy stance in the near term. There is also speculation that Chairman Jerome Powell may be succeeded by former Governor Kevin Warsh, who could adopt a more dovish policy approach [1].
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD is trading within a horizontal channel, with key support at the $4,600 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 45, indicating a neutral-to-slightly bearish bias, while the positive MACD reading suggests tentative upside momentum that has yet to overcome significant resistance between $4,745 and $4,770. Dips have been contained above Friday's low of $4,660, but a break below $4,600 could increase pressure toward the March 26 low near $4,350. On the upside, resistance in the $4,745-$4,770 area continues to cap bullish attempts, with the channel top at $4,885 remaining out of reach for now [1].
CONCLUSION
Gold prices are currently range-bound around $4,700, with market participants awaiting clarity on geopolitical developments and central bank policy decisions. Technical indicators suggest a neutral-to-slightly bearish outlook, with key support and resistance levels defining the near-term trading range.