According to OCBC’s Christopher Wong, the Chinese Renminbi (RMB) is experiencing a reduction in official appreciation guidance, as evidenced by the narrowing CNH-CNY fixing gaps and a moderation in the pace of daily fixing adjustments [1]. Recent daily fixes have been less supportive of RMB appreciation compared to market expectations, indicating a possible shift by policymakers toward managing RMB stability rather than actively guiding for further appreciation [1].
Wong notes that if this trend of fading fixing guidance continues, the direction of the RMB—specifically USD/CNH—may become increasingly influenced by broader US Dollar movements, yield differentials, and sentiment regarding China’s economic growth [1]. This shift could result in the downside path of USD/CNH being less anchored, introducing additional risk to the currency pair’s trajectory [1].
At the time of reporting, USD/CNH was last observed at 6.8060, with mild bullish momentum on the daily chart, though the RSI remains flat, suggesting the likelihood of two-way trading [1]. Key technical levels include resistance at 6.8110 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2026 high to low) and 6.83 (100-day moving average), with support at 6.7910 (50-day moving average) and 6.7880 (21-day moving average) [1].
OCBC flags the potential risk that, as fixing guidance fades, the RMB’s path may become less predictable and more susceptible to external market forces [1].
CONCLUSION
Policymakers appear to be prioritizing RMB stability over further appreciation, reducing the influence of official guidance on the currency’s direction. As a result, USD/CNH may become more sensitive to global market factors, increasing the risk of less anchored downside movements.