Commerzbank analysts have identified the Indian Rupee (INR) as the weakest currency in Asia, noting a year-to-date decline of 4.6% [1]. The USD/INR exchange rate reached an all-time high of just above 95.00 at the start of April, a move attributed to higher oil prices, which have worsened India's current account deficit, and to net capital outflows driven by geopolitical uncertainties [1]. In response, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has actively intervened in the foreign exchange market, implementing measures such as capping banks’ net open rupee positions at USD100 million per day to curb speculative bets against the currency and restricting arbitrage opportunities on offshore-linked FX products [1].
Despite these interventions, Commerzbank projects only modest stabilization for the INR in the near term. The RBI is expected to continue a pragmatic approach, aiming to lean against, but not fully reverse, the currency's weakness [1]. India's foreign exchange reserves fell by over 5% in March 2026 to USD688 billion as the RBI sold USD to support the rupee. However, reserves have since recovered to USD703 billion as of 17 April, providing a healthy import cover of approximately 10.9 months [1].
The ongoing pressure on the INR, driven by external factors such as oil prices and capital flows, suggests continued volatility. The RBI's interventions and policy measures are designed to mitigate, rather than eliminate, currency weakness, reflecting a cautious stance amid persistent macroeconomic challenges [1].
CONCLUSION
The Indian Rupee remains under significant pressure due to higher oil prices and capital outflows, prompting active intervention by the RBI. While foreign exchange reserves have rebounded, analysts expect only modest stabilization ahead, with the RBI likely to continue its measured approach to managing currency weakness.