Rabobank's RaboResearch team has increased its TTF (Title Transfer Facility) natural gas price forecasts to €72/MWh for Q4 2026 and €58/MWh for Q1 2027, citing prolonged disruptions in the Hormuz region, low European gas storage levels, and increased dependence on LNG supplies as key factors driving the upward revision [1]. The bank anticipates that gas prices will remain elevated throughout the upcoming winter and into 2027, as European storage levels will need to be replenished more rapidly next year [1].
For 2027, Rabobank continues to forecast European gas prices in the mid-€40s per MWh and JKM (Japan Korea Marker) prices at approximately $15/MMBtu [1]. However, the report warns that further infrastructure curtailments, which could delay the recovery of gas flows, may push TTF prices into the €50–60/MWh range for much of the next year [1].
The report also notes uncertainty regarding a recent incident in the region, stating that it was unclear which energy facility had been targeted or whether any damage had occurred to Russia’s Yamal LNG terminal [1]. Rabobank highlights that lasting damage to this facility, similar to the earlier damage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan terminal, could drive TTF and JKM gas markets back to price levels last seen in 2022 [1].
Overall, Rabobank's outlook reflects heightened supply risks and infrastructure vulnerabilities, suggesting continued volatility and elevated prices in the European gas market for the foreseeable future [1].
CONCLUSION
Rabobank's revised forecasts signal a high-impact event for European gas markets, with elevated prices expected due to supply disruptions and low storage. The bank warns that further infrastructure issues could push prices even higher, underscoring ongoing risks and volatility for energy traders and consumers.