Central and Eastern European (CEE) foreign exchange markets are experiencing a data-heavy week, with significant attention on inflation and GDP releases across the region, as well as the impact of global factors such as higher oil prices and narrowing rate differentials [1]. ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights that the Czech Republic will release final inflation data, with headline CPI expected to be confirmed at 1.7% and core inflation seen unchanged around 2.8-2.9% [1]. Poland is set to publish final CPI, likely confirming 3.0%, alongside second-quarter GDP, which ING estimates accelerated to 3.8% year-on-year from 3.5% in the first quarter of 2026, driven by investment growth despite a slowdown in private consumption [1]. Turkey’s central bank will also release its inflation report this week [1].
CEE assets remain largely influenced by global headlines, with no progress in US-Iran talks over the weekend and higher oil prices expected to trigger some correction in the markets [1]. Last week’s narrowing in rate differentials may put pressure on CEE currencies, and the EUR/CZK pair is in focus after closing above 24.250 on Friday, with ING seeing upside risk toward 24.300 [1].
In Romania, Moody’s decision to maintain the country’s Baa3 rating with a negative outlook, following a similar move by Fitch a week earlier, is expected to ease pressure on Romanian government bonds (ROMGBs), which underperformed last week with a sell-off of around 15 basis points at the long end, even as the rest of the region rallied [2]. The National Bank of Romania (NBR) is anticipated to keep its policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, with ING forecasting the first rate cut only in January 2027 [2]. The EUR/RON exchange rate remains anchored just below 5.25, and ING expects limited movement due to the NBR’s cautious stance and limited tolerance for additional inflation pressure [2]. However, the rating relief could support a short-term rally in the Romanian Leu as buyers and carry trades return to the market [2].
CONCLUSION
CEE currencies are navigating a week of critical data releases amid ongoing global pressures, with regional FX moves influenced by oil prices and rate differentials. Romania’s stable rating provides some relief, but central banks remain cautious, limiting immediate market shifts. Investors are likely to remain attentive to upcoming inflation and GDP data for further direction.