Societe Generale analysts, including Kenneth Broux, expect the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%, with Governor Glapiński emphasizing a flexible and data-dependent approach to monetary policy [1]. The decision to hold rates comes as headline inflation has accelerated to 3.4% year-over-year, primarily due to higher fuel prices linked to Middle East tensions [1]. This worsening inflation backdrop has effectively removed the possibility of a rate cut in September [1].
Governor Glapiński reiterated last week that monetary policy should remain flexible and responsive to incoming data, while Monetary Policy Council (MPC) member Duda suggested that rates could remain unchanged through the end of 2026 [1]. Societe Generale's house view anticipates the status quo to persist until at least the second quarter of 2027 [1].
The current policy stance is seen as supportive for the Polish Zloty, with expectations that EUR/PLN will remain biased towards the 4.30 level over the coming quarters [1]. The NBP's decision to maintain rates, despite dovish rhetoric, underpins the Zloty's strength against the Euro [1].
CONCLUSION
The National Bank of Poland's decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.75% is viewed as supportive for the Zloty, especially amid rising inflation pressures. Analysts expect this policy stance to help maintain the EUR/PLN near the 4.30 level, with no rate cuts anticipated in the near term.