Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report that the British Pound (GBP) is nearly unchanged versus the US Dollar but is outperforming all G10 currencies despite broad-based USD strength [1]. The release calendar is empty, and near-term market focus is on Prime Minister Burnham’s visit to Kiev and the upcoming autumn budget scheduled for October 28 [1].
Measures of sentiment in the options market indicate a material improvement in the market’s mood toward the GBP, with steady gains observed in risk reversals as the premium for protection against downside risk has faded [1]. Scotiabank sees scope for GBP/USD to advance toward the 2026 high in the upper‑1.38s, noting that recent price action has revealed resistance above 1.3650 and limited additional resistance between current spot and the 2026 peak [1]. Near-term support is identified at 1.3600 and 1.3550 [1].
The GBP’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around the overbought threshold at 70 and just off last week’s peak, suggesting bullish momentum similar to the EUR [1]. Fiscal developments have been limited, but media attention is tightening around the autumn budget, which could influence future market direction [1].
CONCLUSION
The British Pound is showing resilience and outperforming its G10 peers amid improved sentiment, with options markets indicating reduced downside risk. Scotiabank analysts see potential for further gains toward the 2026 high in the upper‑1.38s, with key support levels at 1.3600 and 1.3550. Market participants are closely watching fiscal developments and the upcoming autumn budget for additional direction.