Bitcoin experienced a significant rally this week, surging more than 20% and reaching price levels not seen since May. This rally was driven by two main catalysts: the U.S. Treasury's intervention to halt a sell-off in the bond market, which alleviated pressure on risk assets, and a White House event where President Donald Trump, crypto executives, and regulators advocated for Congress to approve the Clarity Act market structure proposal [1].
Despite this strong upward movement, traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi remain skeptical about the rally's longevity. According to Kalshi, speculators estimate that bitcoin's price at the end of 2026 will be around $75,000, based on the average of contracts traded on the platform. These contracts allow traders to bet on whether bitcoin will trade within various $5,000 ranges at midnight on January 1, 2027, with outcomes determined by CF Benchmarks price data [1].
The outlook for bitcoin's year-end price has improved compared to earlier in the week, when Kalshi traders expected it to finish around $66,000. However, the current forecast of $75,000 still represents a slight decline from bitcoin's latest trading price, which was above $77,000 [1].
Overall, while the recent rally has boosted optimism, Kalshi traders do not expect bitcoin to climb much higher by the end of 2026, suggesting that the current rally may have limited staying power [1].
CONCLUSION
Kalshi traders anticipate that bitcoin will end 2026 near its current levels, despite a recent rally fueled by U.S. Treasury intervention and political support for crypto regulation. The market's improved outlook still implies limited further upside, reflecting cautious sentiment among speculators.