TD Securities’ Chief US Macro Strategist Oscar Munoz asserts that 2026 US labor data indicate Artificial Intelligence is only modestly affecting employment so far, with disruption remaining limited and confined to a small segment of the labor market [1]. Munoz highlights that AI adoption across industries is low, with only 18% of firms reporting adoption, and usage is concentrated in large, knowledge-intensive companies [1]. Even in sectors with higher adoption rates, such as information, the scope of AI use remains narrow and turnover data show soft dynamics in 2026 [1].
Recent surveys, including Gallup, reveal that both AI-adopting and non-adopting organizations report a similar net trend toward workforce expansion, suggesting that AI adoption does not necessarily lead to net job losses [1]. Munoz notes that recent weakness in certain sectors and youth unemployment appears more cyclical than structural, with 2026 data hinting at cyclical green shoots in the labor market [1].
Overall, while AI may have a marginal impact in some sectors, the evidence points to limited disruption and a labor market that is showing signs of cyclical improvement rather than widespread technological displacement [1].
CONCLUSION
According to TD Securities, AI's influence on the US labor market remains modest and largely confined to specific sectors, with overall adoption still low. The 2026 data suggest cyclical improvements in employment, and surveys indicate that AI adoption is not causing net job losses. Market implications are minimal, as the labor market appears resilient to AI-driven disruption at this stage.