Silver (XAG/USD) prices experienced a decline on Thursday, trading at $74.11 per troy ounce, which represents a 1.08% drop from Wednesday's price of $74.92 [2]. This pullback follows a recent high of $77.65 reached on Wednesday, with the metal now hesitating around the $74.00 level [1]. Despite the recent dip, silver prices have increased by 4.26% since the beginning of the year [2].
The market's cautious tone is attributed to emerging cracks in the US-Iran ceasefire deal. Iranian authorities reported violations of the agreement after a massive attack in Lebanon killed 182 people and led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The US and Israel responded by stating that Lebanon was not included in the deal, while US President Donald Trump warned Iran of further 'action' if the terms were not upheld [1]. Despite these tensions, both Tehran and Washington announced plans to send delegations for direct negotiations in Pakistan over the weekend, though investors remain wary of the ceasefire's fragility, which has kept the US Dollar strong and demand for precious metals subdued [1].
Technical analysis indicates that XAG/USD is consolidating nervously just above the rising channel floor, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flat around 50 and the MACD marginally below zero, suggesting balanced momentum but moderate bearish pressure [1]. A break below the trendline support at $73.25 could expose Tuesday's low at $68.20 and potentially the March 23 low at $61.00, with a measured target for a bearish flag formation at the $52.00 area [1]. On the upside, resistance levels are noted at the 50% Fibonacci retracement ($78.95), 61.8% retracement ($83.15), and the channel top at $84.50 [1].
The Gold/Silver ratio increased to 63.85 from 63.01, indicating that silver underperformed relative to gold on Thursday [2]. No explicit analyst opinions or forward-looking statements are provided, but the technical outlook suggests potential downside risk if support levels are breached [1].
CONCLUSION
Silver prices have retreated amid renewed geopolitical tensions and cautious market sentiment, with technical indicators pointing to a potential for further downside if key support levels are broken. The market remains attentive to developments in the US-Iran ceasefire and upcoming negotiations, which could influence silver's direction in the near term.