Both gold (XAU/USD) and silver (XAG/USD) prices are trading in a cautious, sideways manner as investors await Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday [1][2]. Silver is up 0.35% to near $68.40 during the European session, remaining within a weekly range of $67.35 to $70 [1]. Gold, meanwhile, has eased from its recent highs, trading around $4,585 after reaching $4,697 earlier in the week, its highest level since May 14, and is still up about 13% in August [2].
The market’s focus is on the Fed’s interest rate outlook, especially after recent US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data showed inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target [2]. This has led to a modest recovery in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which is trading around 99.25, and reinforced expectations that the Fed may keep rates higher for longer [2]. Strategists at OCBC noted that the USD could find support if Warsh and other Fed officials reaffirm their commitment to returning inflation to the 2% target, with the Jackson Hole event seen as a key venue for clarifying the Fed’s stance [1].
Technical analysis for silver shows a bullish near-term bias, with XAG/USD trading above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $65.34 and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 62, indicating firm upside momentum but approaching overbought territory [1]. For gold, despite a bullish bias, momentum indicators suggest waning upside strength as traders lock in profits near recent highs [2]. Gold ended Wednesday with a loss of around 1.40% [2].
Market participants are also monitoring geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, as ongoing tensions and elevated energy prices continue to pose upside risks to inflation [2]. There are ongoing negotiations regarding vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran and Oman having reached an agreement, though details are still being finalized [2].
Looking ahead, the US economic calendar is light, with weekly Initial Jobless Claims as the main release on Thursday, leaving precious metals largely influenced by US Dollar movements, Fed expectations, and geopolitical news [2]. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a near 62% chance that the Fed will keep borrowing costs unchanged in September [2].
CONCLUSION
Gold and silver prices are consolidating as traders await clearer signals from Fed Chair Warsh’s upcoming speech, with both metals sensitive to US Dollar dynamics and inflation expectations. Technical indicators suggest a bullish bias for both, though momentum is slowing as markets digest recent gains. The outcome of the Jackson Hole Symposium and ongoing geopolitical developments will be key drivers for precious metals in the near term.