Southeast Asian countries are shifting their oil import strategies, increasingly sourcing crude from Brunei, Libya, and the United States in response to disruptions caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East [1]. Official trade statistics and shipping data reveal that ASEAN states such as Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia have reduced their reliance on Gulf oil, instead boosting imports from alternative suppliers to maintain economic stability [1].
For instance, Thailand's crude oil imports from Brunei surged by 28% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, while shipments from Libya and the U.S. to several ASEAN countries also recorded double-digit percentage increases during the same period [1]. This shift is attributed to increased risk premiums and disrupted supply routes from the Gulf region, prompting ASEAN nations to diversify their sources [1].
Market analysts highlight that this diversification strategy has helped stabilize domestic fuel prices and reduce exposure to geopolitical shocks in the Gulf. A Singapore-based energy analyst noted, 'By broadening their supplier base, these countries are better insulated from sudden price spikes and supply disruptions' [1]. Despite Brent crude prices remaining volatile—fluctuating between $85 and $95 per barrel in recent months—the move to alternative suppliers has enabled ASEAN importers to better manage costs and ensure consistent supply. Additionally, some traders report that cargoes from Libya have been priced at a slight discount to Gulf grades, providing further savings [1].
Looking forward, industry experts anticipate the trend will persist as uncertainty in the Middle East continues. ASEAN refiners are reportedly negotiating longer-term contracts with non-Gulf suppliers, and shipping data indicates increased tanker traffic from Brunei and the U.S. to Southeast Asia [1]. The situation remains dynamic, but these sourcing adjustments underscore the region's efforts to adapt to a shifting global energy landscape [1].
CONCLUSION
ASEAN countries are proactively diversifying their oil import sources to mitigate risks from Middle East instability, resulting in increased imports from Brunei, Libya, and the U.S. This strategy has helped stabilize fuel prices and manage supply costs, with the trend expected to continue as regional uncertainty persists.