Standard Chartered economists Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding report that China has managed the recent Middle East oil shock relatively well, attributing this resilience to the country's diversified energy mix and its long-standing commitment to non-fossil energy sources [1]. According to March data, oil and natural gas are not dominant in China's energy portfolio, which has lessened the impact of supply disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict [1].
China's energy policy is anchored by ambitious targets outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), which aims to increase the non-fossil fuel share of total energy consumption to 25% by 2030, up from 21.7% in 2025. The plan also sets longer-term goals of over 30% by 2035 and more than 80% by 2060, supporting the country's objectives of peaking emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 [1].
The economists note that while fossil fuels, including coal, will remain important for energy security, the transition towards non-fossil sources will continue, driven by these policy goals [1]. They also highlight that rising geopolitical risks and more frequent energy supply shocks could increase global demand for renewables, potentially benefiting China but also raising the risk of trade frictions [1].
CONCLUSION
China's proactive energy transition policies have helped insulate its economy from recent oil supply shocks, according to Standard Chartered. The country's ongoing shift toward non-fossil fuels is expected to continue, with policy targets providing a clear roadmap for future growth and potential global market implications.