The Strait of Hormuz continues to experience severely restricted ship traffic following President Donald Trump's unilateral extension of the ceasefire with Iran, as tensions and security risks persist in the region [1]. Despite the ceasefire extension, Iran is actively attempting to control ship movements in the sea lane, while the United States maintains its blockade of Iranian ports and vessels [1]. Ship traffic through the strait remained very light on Wednesday, with only six ships, including three oil tankers, transiting the passage, according to LSEG tracking data. This figure is consistent with Tuesday's numbers and significantly below prewar levels, when more than 100 ships crossed daily [1].
The security situation remains volatile, with multiple attacks on ships reported in recent days. Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced the seizure of two container ships attempting to cross the strait "without authorization" [1]. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre (UKMTO) has issued warnings about high activity levels in the strait and advised ships to report suspicious incidents [1]. On Wednesday, a cargo ship was fired upon and is now immobilized, while on Tuesday, a gunboat from the Guard heavily damaged a container ship's bridge [1]. Over the weekend, Iranian forces fired on a tanker and a cargo ship, both reportedly Indian, prompting New Delhi to file a complaint with Tehran [1].
The U.S. Navy responded by firing on an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday, subsequently boarding and taking custody of the vessel. President Trump stated that the ship was attempting to evade the U.S. blockade [1]. These ongoing confrontations have resulted in a dramatic reduction in ship traffic and are described as causing the largest oil supply disruption in history [1].
Prior to the conflict, approximately 20% of the world's crude oil supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Projections indicate that oil flows may reach up to 90% of prewar levels by July, but it could take an additional two months for these barrels to arrive at refineries worldwide for processing [1].
CONCLUSION
The continued closure and insecurity of the Strait of Hormuz have led to a significant disruption in global oil supply and shipping activity. With ongoing attacks and military actions, market uncertainty remains high, and a full recovery in oil flows is not expected until at least July, with further delays anticipated for downstream processing.