According to a survey of economists reported by Nikkei Asia, China's economic growth likely accelerated in the first quarter of 2026, despite the shock of higher oil prices resulting from the ongoing Iran war [1]. The survey highlights that China's resilience to external pressures, including elevated energy costs, has buoyed the economy in the short term. Government interventions, such as fuel price controls and emergency measures to stabilize supply chains, have partially offset the negative impact of the Iran-related oil price surge [1].
Economists quoted in the survey noted that China's Q1 growth is expected to exceed expectations, but they expressed doubts about the sustainability of this pace due to persistent weakness in the property sector [1]. One analyst remarked that while the Iran oil crisis has raised input costs for manufacturers, robust exports and government support are currently providing a cushion [1]. Manufacturing activity reportedly remained resilient, and consumer demand was supported by targeted stimulus policies, although it was described as patchy [1].
Looking forward, the consensus among surveyed economists is that China's growth rate will moderate in the second half of 2026. Downward risks are expected to stem from the property sector, uncertainties around global trade, and the potential for further energy market volatility linked to the Iran conflict [1]. The article did not provide specific GDP growth figures or technical chart analyses, but emphasized that the economic outlook remains fragile and that financial markets are monitoring for additional policy responses from Beijing [1].
CONCLUSION
China's Q1 2026 GDP growth likely exceeded expectations, supported by government interventions and resilient manufacturing, despite the Iran oil shock. However, economists warn that structural challenges, especially in the property sector, may slow growth in the second half of the year. Financial markets remain alert for further policy actions from Beijing as risks persist.