According to ING’s Frantisek Taborsky, March inflation in Romania increased from 9.3% to 9.9% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations. ING forecasts that Romanian inflation will remain above 10% in the coming months, peaking near 11% in April. As a result, ING does not anticipate any rate cuts from the National Bank of Romania in 2026, expecting the central bank to remain on hold for an extended period [1].
In the Czech Republic, the final estimate for March inflation is pending, but the flash estimate showed an increase from 1.4% to 1.9%, which was below market expectations. The movement of core inflation from February’s 2.7% remains a point of interest. ING expects the Czech National Bank (CNB) to keep rates unchanged this year, aligning with the broader trend among central banks in the Central and Eastern European region [1].
On the currency front, ING remains broadly bullish on Hungary, projecting the EUR/HUF exchange rate to stabilize in the 355–360 range. For the Czech koruna, the EUR/CZK is gradually declining, with levels below 24.350 approaching 24.250. However, ING does not foresee a return to these levels in the current environment, citing geopolitical uncertainty and the two CNB rate hikes already priced into the market [1].
CONCLUSION
ING’s analysis highlights persistent inflationary pressures in Romania and a cautious stance from central banks in both Romania and the Czech Republic. The Hungarian forint is favored by ING, while rate cuts in Romania and the Czech Republic are not expected this year. Market participants should monitor inflation trends and central bank communications for further direction.