BNY’s Bob Savage reports that Iran has proposed a deal to the United States, mediated through Pakistan, which prioritizes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the ongoing war, while delaying nuclear talks to a later stage. This proposal is intended to bypass internal disagreements within Iran regarding nuclear concessions, and aims to address the current disruption in energy supply caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [1]. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has already held discussions in Pakistan and Oman, with further talks anticipated in Moscow. As of now, the United States has not responded to Iran’s proposal [1].
The proposal suggests that the U.S. blockade would be lifted first, which could potentially reduce U.S. leverage over Iran’s uranium stockpile and enrichment suspension—key objectives for the Trump administration [1]. The ongoing disruption to energy supply has led to rising oil price forecasts, with Brent crude expected to remain above $90 per barrel through the end of 2026, a view that is increasingly becoming consensus among market participants as geopolitical risks remain elevated [1].
CONCLUSION
Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while delaying nuclear talks, has contributed to a consensus that Brent oil prices will stay above $90 per barrel through 2026. The market is reacting to persistent geopolitical risks and ongoing supply disruptions, with no U.S. response to the proposal yet reported.